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New Vehicle Sales Expected to Reach Highest SAAR this Year

November 02, 2011

TrueCar.com released its October 2011 sales and incentives forecast last week, according to an Oct. 25 press release.

For October 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S., including fleet, is expected to be 1,035,042 units, which is up 9 percent from October 2010 but down 1.7 percent from September 2011 (on an unadjusted basis).

The October 2011 forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million new car sales — up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up from 12.2 million in October 2010.

Retail sales are up 9.8 percent compared to October 2010 and down half a percentage point from September 2011. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in October 2011.

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,669 in October 2011, which represents an increase of 0.6 percent from September 2011 and up 4.6 percent from October 2010.

Additionally, used car sales are estimated to be 2,741,442, up 5.7 percent from October 2010 and down 15.1 percent from September 2011.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for October 2011

"This will be the fifth straight month where SAAR will rise and the highest we've seen in over two years," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com.

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