While factory-installed navigation systems will be available on 30 percent of all new vehicles sold by 2006, only 6 percent of consumers who buy new vehicles will select the navigation system as an option, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2001 Navigation Systems Forecast(SM).
Factory installed in-vehicle navigation systems, available on 39 models in model year 2001, will be offered on 54 models in 2002 — a 38 percent increase — and on 113 models by 2006, according to the forecast.
"Vehicle manufacturers are moving quickly to offer navigation systems on their new cars and trucks," said Walter McManus, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "Their activities are rapidly going to move beyond the luxury segments, where navigation systems have been limited for the past four years, into many of the other segments. The number of vehicles with navigation systems sold will continue to increase dramatically, yet it is well under the potential based on vehicle manufacturers’ availability plans, and far less than some analysts expect."
McManus anticipates that by 2006, navigation systems will be available in all but five light vehicle market segments. Vehicle segments not expected to offer navigation systems include entry compact car, entry midsize car, fullsize car, sporty car and compact pickup, according to McManus.
"We expect the average take rate for navigation systems will remain under 20 percent for vehicles that offer the system," McManus said. "Cost will remain the primary reason people will stay away from navigation systems."
The average price for a factory-installed navigation system today is approximately $2,000. While McManus expects the cost for navigation systems to drop about 25 percent by 2006 to approximately $1,500, most consumers who express interest in navigation systems indicate they’re willing to pay only $700 for this emerging technology.
Navigation systems were first offered as a factory-installed option on five vehicle models in the United States in 1998 — all in the entry luxury, mid-luxury and premium luxury car segments. Approximately 25,000 factory-installed navigation systems were sold on new vehicles that year. Approximately 190,000 new vehicles sold in 2001 will have a factory-installed navigation system, including luxury car segments, SUVs, sports cars and vans. That number is expected to increase to 280,000 units in 2002 and grow to approximately 1.07 million units by 2006, according to the forecast.
The 2001 Navigation Systems Forecast is part of Vehicle Features and Technologies Forecasts, a recently launched service of J.D. Power and Associates Automotive Forecasting Practice. The Vehicle Features and Technologies Forecasts rely on J.D. Power and Associates' end-customer databases and forecasting to develop quantitative predictions of the adoption and penetration of traditional and emerging technologies in the automotive market.
A forecast of adaptive cruise control was released in July 2001. Scheduled for release later this year are forecasts of external vehicle sensing aids, driver vision enhancement systems, passenger entertainment systems, telematics and heated windshields.
About J.D. Power and Associates
Headquartered in Agoura Hills, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is a global marketing information services firm operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, consulting, training and customer satisfaction.
The firm’s quality and satisfaction measurements are based on actual responses from millions of consumers annually.
J.D. Power and Associates can be accessed through the Internet at www.jdpa.com