Self-driving electrified vehicles will dominate U.S. roads in 13 years, while gasoline-powered vehicles will remain but represent only 5% of all consumer miles driven, according to a new report from RethinkX.
By 2030, self-driving cars, including "wheel optional" Level 5 fully autonomous cars, will represent 95% of all car miles driven, the San Francisco-based firm forecasts in "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries."
The report proposes a smartphone-like adoption curve with a more accelerated timeline compared to studies from Moody's and IHS Automotive that have forecast a more gradual timeline for adoption of self-driving cars through Transportation as a Service (TaaS).
The rapid adoption will result in savings of more than $5,600 per year to the average American family, which is equivalent to a wage increase of 10%.
The report envisions a world with much higher vehicle utilization rates and far less individual ownership. Cars would be owned by ride-hailing and other large fleets. Each car would be used at least 10 times more than individually owned vehicles, and a vehicle's consumer lifecycle would reach 500,000 miles. Costs for maintenance, energy, finance, and insurance would be significantly lower under the report's scenario.
Download the full report here.
Originally posted on Automotive Fleet