This is analysis from CNW Marketing Research released 10/30.
Obama win: 14.6 million new sales, 36.75 million used; McCain win: 15.4 million new sales, 37.5 million used
Reasons for the difference: The tax policies each is supporting have significantly different impacts on small and medium business as well as corporate fleet auto purchases. If the Obama policies are enacted by a Democrat-controlled Congress, new-vehicle sales -- which are nearly 40 percent to small, medium and large business as well as commercial fleet (excluding daily rental) -- would be severely curtailed.
McCain tax policies would likely be thwarted by a Democrat-controlled Congress which puts the industry on a conventional and historic trend line.
On the used-vehicle side, the differences can be traced to the same tax policies. About 20 percent of used sales are to families with incomes over $200,000 per year for sons, daughters and other family members as well as for use in home businesses. Higher taxes on these families is not offset by lower taxes or rebates to lower income families who typically buy private party and on an as-needed basis.
None of the tax plans would actually add significantly to the disposable income of those families.
The 800 pound gorilla in the closet is the $750-plus billion bank bailout money and how much of it would be loaned for new and used car financing. Regardless of who wins the election, these funds could add upwards of 250,000 sales to either Presidential winner's numbers above. (Obama: 14,850,000; McCain: 15,650,000). On the used side, nearly three-quarters of a million units could be added regardless of who wins the election.
Those are some big "ifs," but rarely has there been such a significant difference in proposed tax policies and the potential for one party to have a super majority capable of stifling debate over those policies.
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