Analysis: A big drop of 20% to 30%, as one report suggests, is highly unlikely. History tells us a decline of more than 10% is rare indeed.
Wholesale prices appear to have peaked the week before Thanksgiving as weekly prices have declined slightly in each of the last two weeks. But retail prices continue to increase.
The average listing price of about $27,000 is running 25% above year-ago levels and 38% over pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
October figures show buyers are much more aggressive in purchasing than is typically the case in the fall. Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government buyers were down 24% year-over-year in October.
The Pipeline Market Report is the industry's first information tool driven solely by independent auction sale data, encompassing near real time results from 175+ partner operations.
The sales conversion rate also increased last month and ended at a level higher than typical for August, indicating buyers have become more aggressive than they were in June and July.
The IARA Summer Roundtable conference balanced a look back at successes while confronting industry challenges ahead.
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in July.
The latest trends in key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values will continue to see depreciation in the days ahead.
Demand has been healthy, inventories tight, and dealers have felt little pressure to lower prices.
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